Just four days out from Election Day, approximately 32% of Arizona registered voters have already voted by mail. As much as 68% of registered voters are either purposefully waiting to vote on Election Day, are not voting in this election… or they are the beloved procrastinators among us. The number of mail in ballots will continue to rise as they arrive at the county recorder offices over the next few days.

As of this morning, 1,316,848 ballots were returned to the fifteen county recorder offices. Democrats returned nearly 48% of ballots requested, Republicans returned 44.5% requested, and Independents returned more than 32.5% of requested early ballots according to Data Orbital’s early voting tracker. Interestingly, more than 529,000 Independent registered voters did not request early ballots; 407,000 Republicans don’t vote early, and 255,000 Democrats don’t request an early ballot. There is no telling how many of those registered voters will show up at the polls Tuesday, or how many early voters will walk their ballots in on Election Day.

Data Orbital’s George Khalaf says, “Trends continue to be positive for Republican chances this November in Arizona. There is a significant amount of likely Republican voters left to turn in their early ballots and more than 100,000 Republican Election Day voters, over Democrats. We believe Republicans are on pace for an 8% to 9% ballot advantage (difference between total number of republicans who vote vs Democrats).”

Data Orbital had Kari Lake up by 2.5% over Katie Hobbs in the latest poll, with 6% still undecided. Meantime, calls grow for Hobbs to recuse herself from her current position as Secretary of State so she does not oversee her own race. The Secretary of State’s office certifies election results submitted by each county. A recusal would avoid the question of integrity, especially if the race is close.

New York Times/Siena College poll has U.S. Senator Mark Kelly up 51% to 45% over Blake Masters.

Fox News has both races listed as toss-ups, but in a bigger picture, predicts Republicans will win the U.S. House and possibly the U.S. Senate.

That could explain President Biden’s sudden campaign speech on prime-time TV Wednesday suggesting Republicans are “a threat to Democracy.”


Still Need to Vote?

If you have an early ballot you filled out but didn’t yet mail, don’t. It’s too late. Instead, bring it to a polling place on Tuesday and vote in person. The poll workers will spoil your mail in ballot so it won’t be counted. By voting in person rather than dropping off your early ballot, your vote will be counted election night. If you only drop off your early ballot, it could take days to verify and count it.

  • Polls are open from 6:00 a.m. Tuesday to 7:00 p.m. Find a polling location here.
  • If you already mailed in your ballot, you can check the status of it here.
  • Access general voting information at [azsos.gov]azsos.gov
  • Click here for a printable PDF version of CAP Action’s endorsements.
  • For information on some school board races and judges, visit [azvoterguide.com]azvoterguide.com, scroll down a bit and click school board candidates or judicial retention candidates.
  • For a brief description of the ballot measures, click here. If you want to read more about the ballot measures and why CAP Action takes the positions it does, click here. We recommend a YES vote on Propositions 128, 129, 132, 309 and a NO vote on Prop 211.


  • Read here how Google was caught skewing search results in favor of Arizona Democrats.
  • November is National Adoption Month. Read here a heartwarming explanation of why adoption is a loving option – even in the worst circumstances.
  • Read here about how the “Right to Contraception” bill threatens conscience rights of health care workers.